WAYNE, NJ – Wednesday night, the Township provided a public information session on its affordable housing obligation under the Mt. Laurel doctrine. As of now, seven new residential developments are likely to be built in Wayne over the next few years. These seven developments would provide approximately 2,951 residential units.
During the presentation, an estimate was given of “less than 1,000” as the number of school-age children that are likely to move into these seven new developments over the next few years, according to Planning Consultant Beth McManus who has been representing Wayne Township in its affordable housing matter.
As an exercise, TAPinto broke down the number of students that would attend each public school in Wayne based on the information provided during the presentation, and based on current districting for schools.
Incorrect assumptions that were used in this analysis. For simple math, we used the number 1,000 instead of “less than 1,000.” Again, to keep things simple, we assumed that all 1,000 children would attend the Wayne public schools and not attend any private schools. We also broke down these 1,000 evenly into the thirteen grades between Kindergarten and Senior year of high school (77 students per grade), and we estimated the number of students per development based on percentage of units from the total. Lastly, we used current school districting based on information from the “Find My School” link on the Wayne Township Schools website.
The results show AP Terhune Elementary would be affected the most with a 68% increase in enrollment, if nothing changes. Schuyler Colfax Middle School may get an increase of 21% and Wayne Hills High School might increase enrollment by 23%.
This is due to the fact that six of these seven developments will be built on the Wayne Hills side of town. If nothing changes, Wayne Valley High School would only take the students that move into the Galreh property on Route 23 and grow by only 2%.
Only three elementary schools would be affected: AP Terhune, JFK and Ryerson. Eight of the Wayne schools would be affected*. Again, given current districting. Here are the total number of students predicted to live in the following developments, and where each would attend Wayne schools:
- AvalonBay: 160 students - JFK - AW - Hills
- GAF: 152 students - JFK - AW - Hills
- Galreh: 79 students - Ryerson - GW - Valley
- Preakness: 83 students - APT - SC - Hills
- Rockledge: 36 students - APT - SC - Hills
- Toys R Us: 457 students - APT - SC - Hills
- Wayne Bridge: 33 students - APT - SC – Hills
APT = AP Terhune Elementary. JFK = John F Kennedy Elementary. Ryerson = Ryerson Elementary AW = Anthony Wayne Middle School. GW = George Washington Middle School. SC = Schuyler-Colfax Middle School. Hills = Wayne Hills High School. Valley = Wayne Valley High School.
*This analysis does not include Wayne’s fourteenth school, the Preakness Early Childhood Center.
Breaking it down grade-by-grade and school-by-school. Here is an example of how we came up with our numbers. Approximately 160 of the 1,000 new students will come from the AvalonBay development on Valley Road Extension. This was calculated based on the proposed 473 units from AvalonBay, which is 16% of the total of 2,951 units that will be built from all seven developments.
So, 16% of 1,000 new students is 160 students. Divided evenly between the 13 grades of Kindergarten through 12th grade there would be 12.3 students that will attend each grade. There are six grades in the elementary schools, so 73.8 (74) students could attend John F. Kennedy Elementary from this development. Anthony Wayne Middle School might get 37 students and Wayne Hills High School might get 49 new students from this development.
The true end results can only be determined by time. No one knows how many school-age children will actually move into these developments, and of course these students won’t be evenly spread out over each grade. The Wayne Board of Education will adjust as enrollment increases and change where students attend in order to not overwhelm any one school.
If the 1,000 school-age children number turns out to be accurate and the BOE adjusts to spread these students out evenly, then APT might get 51 new students, just like every other elementary school (this is nine new students per grade, per school). The Middle schools could get 77 new students each (26 new students per grade) and the high schools would grow by 154 students each (39 new students per grade).
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February 27, 2021 at 02:00PM
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Part 2: How Crowded Will Each Wayne School Get with Seven New Developments? - TAPinto.net
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