He’s the reigning, defending NBA Finals MVP and champion. He ranks top-10 in points, rebounds, blocks per game and field goal percentage.
His team has surged to the top of the Eastern Conference after an injury-plagued start, and he seemingly has high profile, monster games weekly.
The question you have to ask is: What more does the Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo have to do to be the MVP favorite? (At BetMGM, he is a distant third at +750 behind Nikola Jokic’s -300 and Joel Embiid’s +275).
His case in six words: Giannis Antetokounmpo is the most dominant.
He has been most dominant the past three years. You cannot stop him. There are no counters.
One of the many issues Anteto-kounmpo presents is not just his raw size and power. It’s his tree-limb wingspan. He isn’t just a lob and at-rim threat, though. He’s able to finish through contact. He is second in the NBA at drawing and-ones this season, behind only Embiid.
You used to be able to build a wall, pack the paint with multiple guys and make him shoot a jumper. That doesn’t work anymore. Part of what helps Antetokounmpo in these spots is that opponents have to play back. If they play up, he just brushes past them. So they have to give him space, which makes it easier for him to get to his spots.
To put his shooting in perspective, Embiid is shooting 41.8 percent from mid-range while Antetokounmpo is shooting 41.7 percent. Embiid shoots way more based on how often he pops in mid-range, but Embiid is considered a good mid-range shooter.
The league average is 30 percent and Antetokounmpo is in the 52nd percentile, according to CleaningTheGlass.com. He’s not elite in this category, but he’s punishing teams enough to make things difficult.
Antetokounmpo’s overall shooting efficiency is worse this season than in either of his MVP seasons by effective field goal percentage, precisely because he takes more shots. If you take difficult shots more often, your efficiency will decrease. What matters is that his overall efficiency remains elite.
You used to be able to make him earn it at the line. That does not work now because he keeps forcing you into foul trouble and never relents no matter how many he misses. Not only that, but he’s shooting 72 percent this season and making a career-high from the line.
The defense with Antetokounmpo this season is a bit complicated to explain, but here’s what’s interesting: Second Spectrum tracks half-court matchup possessions and among players with at least 3,500 (a total of 101 players), opponents attempt shots against Antetokounmpo just 14.2 times per 100 possessions. For perspective, the lowest is 11 and the average is 16.1. Antetokounmpo’s opponents are able (or willing) to create shots in the 16th percentile.
In short, opponents do not test him. Opposing players generate just 18 points for every 100 matchups against him.
His overall impact is significant. With Antetokounmpo on the floor, the Bucks are plus-7.9 points per 100 possessions. The Bucks lose by 3.2 points per 100 possessions when he sits.
When Antetokounmpo has played this season, the Bucks were 43-22 entering Friday, a 66 percent winning percentage. When he has been out, the Bucks were 6-8.
The best way to use the metrics in support of his MVP case is to say that despite having to play out of position early and often this season, he dominated, and his team has been as good as any in the league when healthy.
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April 10, 2022 at 06:14PM
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Giannis Antetokounmpo a sleeper NBA MVP bet in crowded field - New York Post
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