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Breaking down the crowded Atlantic Division playoff picture - Tampa Bay Times

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DALLAS — With nine games remaining in the regular season, the Lightning, Maple Leafs and Bruins are jockeying for playoff positioning.

The Lightning can clinch a postseason berth as soon as Thursday, and this month has included contests against fellow contenders that had an unmistakable playoff feel — hard-checking, closely-contested, low-scoring games.

“It’s kind of fun playing down the stretch these games,” Lightning forward Pat Maroon said after Tuesday’s 1-0 loss in Dallas. “They’re fighting to get in the playoffs, and we’re fighting to clinch in the playoffs. We’re playing playoff teams on this stretch.”

Tampa Bay’s schedule gets easier over the final stretch. Just three of its remaining games are against playoff teams, and only one — April 21 vs. Toronto — will impact the race directly.

With the first-place Panthers (52-15-6, 110 points) well ahead of the pack, here’s a look at the road ahead for the Lightning, Maple Leafs and Bruins and the factors that could come into play in the race for seeding.

Lightning (third in Atlantic, 44-21-8, 96 points)

Lightning defensemen Victor Hedman (77) and Jan Rutta (44) celebrate Rutta's goal during a game against the Maple Leafs earlier this month at Amalie Arena.
Lightning defensemen Victor Hedman (77) and Jan Rutta (44) celebrate Rutta's goal during a game against the Maple Leafs earlier this month at Amalie Arena. [ JASON BEHNKEN | AP ]

Remaining schedule: Six home, three away

Games against teams currently in playoff positions (3): April 21 vs. Toronto, April 23 vs. Nashville, April 24 at Florida

Who’s hot: Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed just three goals (two in regulation) over his past two starts, compiling a .954 save percentage. Backup Brian Elliott recorded a 28-save shutout in his last outing.

Who’s not: Alex Killorn has no points in his past five games. Despite ending his goal drought on Sunday, Ondrej Palat has just five points over his past 21 games.

Who’s hurt: With defenseman Ryan McDonagh’s return, the Lightning are as healthy as they’ve been all season.

Maple Leafs (second in Atlantic, 47-20-6, 100 points)

Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) celebrates with goaltender Jack Campbell (36) after Matthews recorded a hat trick during a game against the Lightning earlier this month in Tampa.
Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) celebrates with goaltender Jack Campbell (36) after Matthews recorded a hat trick during a game against the Lightning earlier this month in Tampa. [ DIRK SHADD | Times ]

Remaining schedule: Five home, four away

Games against teams currently in playoff positions (5): Thursday vs. Washington, April 21 at Lightning, April 23 at Florida, April 24 at Washington, April 29 vs. Boston

Who’s hot: There’s not a hotter player in hockey right now than center Auston Matthews, who has 21 goals and 10 assists in his last 17 games. Forward Mitch Marner isn’t far behind with eight goals and 20 assists in his past 14.

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Who’s not: Jason Spezza has no points in his last four games.

Who’s hurt: Toronto has struggled to keep its goaltenders healthy, and Petr Mrazek is currently on injured reserve. Starter Jack Campbell returned earlier this month from a rib injury that kept him out for more than three weeks.

Bruins (fourth in Atlantic, 45-23-5, 95 points)

Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) makes a save on a shot by Boston Bruins center Craig Smith (12) during a game earlier this month in Tampa.
Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) makes a save on a shot by Boston Bruins center Craig Smith (12) during a game earlier this month in Tampa. [ JASON BEHNKEN | AP ]

Remaining schedule: Five home, four away

Games against teams currently in playoff positions (6): Saturday vs Pittsburgh, Tuesday at St. Louis, April 21 at Pittsburgh, April 23 vs. NY Rangers, April 26 vs Florida, April 29 vs. Toronto

Who’s hot: Defenseman Charlie McAvoy is playing at a plus-10 over his past nine games and has 12 assists over that stretch. Center Patrice Bergeron has four points over his past four games.

Who’s not: Defenseman Mike Reilly is minus-4 with no points over his last six games. Forward Craig Smith is also minus-4 over his last four.

Who’s hurt: The Bruins are probably the most banged-up of the three teams. Leading goal-scorer David Pastrnak has missed the past four games with an injury, and the Boston power play has struggled without its top threat, going 0-for-13. Injuries to Hampus Lindholm and Matt Grzelcyk leave Boston thin on left-shot defensemen.

If season ended today

Florida Panthers left wing Anthony Duclair (10) celebrates with center Aleksander Barkov (16) after scoring a goal during a game against the Anaheim Ducks Tuesday in Sunrise.
Florida Panthers left wing Anthony Duclair (10) celebrates with center Aleksander Barkov (16) after scoring a goal during a game against the Anaheim Ducks Tuesday in Sunrise. [ LYNNE SLADKY | AP ]

A look at what would be the first-round matchups in the Eastern Conference entering Wednesday’s games:

Atlantic 1 Panthers vs. Wild Card 2 Capitals

Metropolitan 1 Hurricanes vs. Wild Card 1 Bruins

Atlantic 2 Maple Leafs vs. Atlantic 3 Lightning

Metropolitan 2 Rangers vs. Metropolitan 3 Penguins

Standings tiebreakers

The Lightning could fall to a wild-card spot if these tiebreaker scenarios come into play:

  1. Point percentage (if one team has the same number of points but has played fewer games, it receives the first tiebreaker)
  2. Regulation wins (Leafs 40, Bruins 35, Lightning 33)
  3. Wins not won in shootout (Leafs 45, Bruins 43, Lightning 42)
  4. Total wins (Leafs 47, Bruins 45, Lightning 44)

• • •

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Breaking down the crowded Atlantic Division playoff picture - Tampa Bay Times
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