Complaints about crowding at Disneyland and Disney World won’t fly in the court of public opinion or in state houses in Sacramento or Tallahassee when Disney’s U.S. theme parks eventually reopen in the COVID-19 era.
Disney, Universal, SeaWorld, Six Flags, Cedar Fair, Legoland and regional U.S. theme parks are expected to operate with social distancing-friendly attendance caps in place once they reopen following their extended coronavirus closures.
SEE ALSO: First U.S. theme parks set post-coronavirus reopening dates
Post-COVID-19 theme park capacity limits will vary widely by state and change over time as each locale gets the coronavirus outbreak under control. But most parks are expected to reopen with limits of 25% to 75% of normal capacity.
But what does normal capacity mean? Is that the fire code limit for the park? A theoretical maximum capacity? Or the average daily attendance?
Florida’s Orange County Economic Recovery Task Force laid out preliminary plans for a phased reopening of theme parks in the Orlando area once the coronavirus crisis begins to wane. The Florida task force’s initial recommendations call for Disney World and Universal Orlando theme parks to reopen at 50% capacity in Phase 1 and at 75% in Phase 2.
SEE ALSO: Analysts say park closures could cost Disney $27 million daily
California Gov. Gavin Newsom unveiled a four-stage plan for reopening the state economy that didn’t specifically mention theme parks and offered no details on what restrictions would be put in place when Disneyland, Universal and other parks eventually reopen their gates. No post-COVID-19 reopening dates have been set for Disney, Universal and SeaWorld parks in California.
The Shanghai Disneyland theme park in China reopened to visitors with advance reservations on May 11. Attendance was limited to 24,000 visitors — 30% of Shanghai Disneyland’s 80,000 capacity. New Disney CEO Bob Chapek said actual attendance at Shanghai Disneyland would start “far below that” and increase by 5,000 visitors each week with the Chinese government’s permission.
SEE ALSO: First Florida theme parks set post-coronavirus reopening dates in June
Shanghai Disneyland’s 80,000-visitor capacity is similar to Disneyland’s estimated capacity.
Disneyland’s capacity was approximately 75,000 visitors before the addition of Galaxy’s Edge and is approximately 85,000 when you include the new 14-acre Star Wars themed land, according to Touring Plans, which uses big data and statistical analysis to calculate daily theme park crowd sizes.
An attendance cap of 25% would bring Disneyland’s theoretical COVID-19 capacity down to 21,250 visitors. A 50% cap would work out to 42,500 Disneyland visitors.
“That’s why the phased ‘50% capacity’ guideline doesn’t make a lot of sense,” Touring Plans president Len Testa said by email. “That’s probably pretty close to how many people are in the park at peak time during an average day.”
Disneyland attracts an average of 51,000 visitors per day, according to the Themed Entertainment Association.
“But all of those people aren’t in the park at the same time,” Testa said.
Testa estimates 45,000 visitors are in Disneyland at any one time on an average day.
SEE ALSO: Which Six Flags parks will reopen first? These 6 are the top contenders
Disney California Adventure attracts an average of 27,000 daily visitors, according to TEA. Touring Plans estimates the capacity for DCA at about 50,000 visitors.
DCA could allow 12,500 visitors a day with a 25% attendance cap and 25,000 with a 50% cap, based on Touring Plans estimates.
The reality is that Disney theme parks rarely reach capacity. Disneyland occasionally halts visitors from entering when the park reaches capacity during the busy Christmas holiday season.
SEE ALSO: SeaWorld and Busch Gardens coasters could be delayed until 2021 due to coronavirus closures
The Walt Disney World resort in Florida attracts nearly a quarter million visitors per day, according to TEA. Disney World’s average daily attendance per TEA: Magic Kingdom (57,000), Disney’s Animal Kingdom (38,000), Epcot (34,000) and Disney’s Hollywood Studios (31,000).
Much like their California counterparts, Disney’s four Florida theme parks have a theoretical attendance capacity far greater than their average daily attendance.
Disney World’s estimated attendance capacity according to Touring Plans: Magic Kingdom (90,000), Disney’s Animal Kingdom (60,000), Epcot (110,000) and Disney’s Hollywood Studios (60,000).
Initial recommendations from the Florida task force call for Disney World’s four theme parks to reopen at 50% capacity before increasing to 75%.
Theoretical Disney World COVID-19 attendance caps based on Touring Plans capacity estimates:
- Magic Kingdom: 45,000 (50%) and 67,500 (75%)
- Disney’s Animal Kingdom: 30,000 (50%) and 45,000 (75%)
- Epcot: 55,000 (50%) and 82,500 (75%)
- Disney’s Hollywood Studios: 30,000 (50%) and 45,000 (75%)
SEE ALSO: Disney theme parks face $21 billion coronavirus loss through 2022, analysts warn
Calculating theme park capacity depends on two key factors: Open space and attraction capacity. A park like Disney’s Hollywood Studios might have room for 80,000 people, but only enough ride capacity to comfortably handle 60,000 visitors without wait times becoming excessive, Testa said.
“They don’t have enough rides or restaurants to support that level of attendance with reasonable waits,” Testa said via email. “So that’s what limits capacity.”
Disney officials, who declined to comment, rarely discuss visitor attendance or capacity.
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